From: "Liquid Image Corp." Subject: Re: HUMAN-FACTORS: A real, customer conceived VR app Date: 10 Oct 1996 06:06:59 GMT Message-ID: <01bbb671$86a153e0$b2a870cc@merlin.magic.mb.ca> Organization: News readers of the Fluxland I began reading this thread and really felt compelled to put in my $0.02 worth: Ian CR Mapleson wrote in article ... > have never really accepted that the *largest* commercial market for VR > systems, especially HMDs, is the entertainment market. In fact, atleast 5 companies have made or are making this their primary market for their HMDs: Virtual i/O, Forte, Victormaxx, Sega, and Virtuality. > If the route to successful VR lies in cheaper systems, then the > entertainment market must be exploited to the full. I don't really agree with this statement. Every industry has got to follow the same product evolution pattern - Innovation, Rising Star, Cash Cow, Old Dog. The arrival of cheaper products occur during the later stages of the cash cow stage (Major profit taking occurs here!) and the beginning of the Old Dog stage (get it out of our wearhouse at any cost!). Cheap systems do no occur right out of the gate for a number of reasons: (This, by no means, is a complete list of them) (speaking in general terms) 1. Market education. The market really does not know what to do with the product. 2. Market Acceptance. The market really doesn't like the concept, yet. 3. Supplier Support. Emerging technologies usually do not have the backing of the component suppliers. They see the market as a low volume, high risk area. 4. Market Maturity. The market is not broad enough to have generic applications. The market is still highly segmented into small diverse vertical markets. This means high marketing cost to attract a group of markets large enough to sustain your business growth and development. I believe the route to successful VR lies in a market pull not a technology push. Let the market take its course: Low volume - high margin products focused on distinct vertical markets. Medium volume - very low margin products - economies of scale have not been realized, market is still segmented, but the low price brings many customers into the market - the glass ceiling is lowered. High volume - good margin (vague on purpose), here the market has shown the demand, the producers are enjoying economies of scale and are efficient, and enhancements and upgrades are in development - giving producers another rising star product to draw high margins on. Don't force the market just because the technology is available. Tune the market like a radio - when you see some people like your music -turn it up. Don't wait too long - someone with a bigger, louder stereo might come by! > Within a year, there are going to be some 4 million people with N64's > who'd *love* to get their hands on a decent VR helmet. This is a *big* > market Yes, a big VERTICAL market with an "undemanding" consumer. With prices as high as they are for low cost HMDs, +$300, there is very little consumer class demand out there. Therefore, the volume cannot get high enough to warrent lower costs, better screen technology and more software. Assume a 1-2% market penetration 40-80K units, still not enough to put a big smile on the big LCD manufacturers face. > (by that I mean any helmet that cannot support colour > resolutions as high as 640x480) Your NTSC TV doesn't technically support resolutions of 640x480 and your VCR surely doesn't yet they still are North America's most popular sources of entertainment. Go figure! Sorry about the sarcasm but this entertainment resolution barrier is unfounded - games have been and are still being progammed in Mode X which isn't even close to VGA. The 640x480 and beyond resolution is ususally used in more formal buisness applications such as word processing, spreadsheets, etc... where lots of text is needed on the screen at once. Gamers have enjoyed VGA & SVGA monitors due to the fact that business apps required it and not the gaming market. Look at N64, Sega, etc... we do not have 640x480 TV's yet. > - produce a high quality low cost *proper* stereo HMD With respect to 1st person perspective shooters (Duke, Quake...) I have not yet heard a believable argument for the requirement for a stereo system. Usually opponents are fast moving and over a few "virtual yards" away. High bandwidth cues such as stereo vision are not effectve for this type of target - entertainment speaking, the military is a slightly different story. Low bandwidth cues are used to quickly judge distance, point the gun at the opponent and fire. Fire, fire, fire! Biocular HMDs are very effective in this area. Also, what do you mean by proper stereo? > - reduce side effects and public backlash from introduction of VR > (a good helmet will cause fewer side effects). It will be very difficult to regulate extended useage of a HMD, good or bad. When a person is in a virtual environment for an extened period of time, they learn new ways of interacting with that environment -i.e. push button to move forward, brain adjusts for latency between inner ear signal and what the eye sees - tracker latency, etc.... Now, lets say this person was playing a game for 20 minutes then gets an urgent phone call and they have drive somewhere. What types of risks are involved with operating a car right after experiencing an immersive VR game? What about operating a car after extened, >2 hours, of exposure? What about after >4 hours of exposure? Who is to blame if the person gets into an accident - the user? the software manufacturer? the HMD manufacturer? the tracker manufacturer? the LCD screen manufacturer? I would not want to be on the defendant's side when that one makes it though the US Court system. Also, I believe all of the tracker producers will agree that tracker latency will make you sick too. The large latency times on some of the low cost trackers, which, in their defence, are getting better, will have a large contributing factor to cyber sickness in a gaming scenario. > >The fire service industry is always looking for better ways to train > >firefighters. With the high cost ($1 million +) and low flexibility > >of live fire burn room simulators and increasingly tougher EPA > >regulations, the US Air Force turned to the VR industry in hopes of > >improving their training options. They wanted to help bridge the gap > >between multimedia training and the expensive, and dangerous, > >alternative. > I was contacted by a fire service who were interested in using the > Doom graphics engine and an HMD for fire training. I told them to use > Quake instead, which is now out. So where are the HMDs? These two paragraphs hit a sore spot with me. First of all, the USAF "turned to the VR industry in hopes of improving their training options. They wanted to help bridge the gap between multimedia training and the expensive, and dangerous alternative." Now the recommendation to use Quake & an HMD really scares me. Why not take the $1M, or a portion thereof, that they are spending on building a new live simulator and take the plunge, go out on a limb and believe that with that kind of money someone, and there are quite a few software companies out there, could make a world class virtual fire simulator. But no, spending $2,000 dollars on Quake & a headset will accurately and effectively train someone who runs into burning buildings while everone is running out of them. All it really does is make sure no one gets fired, excuse the pun, because of a failed research attempt. (I hate to rant like this but it really hit a sore spot.) Quake, Duke, Doom or any other game is not an effective solution for any real world type problem. Sure they may have some redeeming qualities, but remember what they were built for - entertainment. MS flight sim could also be used to train space shuttle astronauts at a fraction of the cost. > >We can't infiltrate the world with VR technology tomorrow, It will come, the future looks bright - really bright. Right now the market seems to be in a bit of a down turn but, in the grand scheme of things, the market will correct itself and continue on and move forward. Processor prices are falling, performance is rising, LCD resolutions are getting higher, vertical markets are expanding - industry leaders will come and go, don't tell that to Bill Gates though, but the industry will continue on. Tony -- Liquid Image Corporation 659 Century Street Winnipeg, MB R3H 0L9 Cannada Vox: 204-772-0137 Fax: 204-772-0239 Url: http://www.liqiudimage.ca/vr/