From: Peter Rothman <prothman@metatools.com>
Subject: Re: HUMAN-FACTORS: A real, customer conceived VR app
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 1996 10:32:26 -0700
Message-ID: <326127AA.7218@metatools.com>
Organization: MetaTools, inc.


Ian CR Mapleson wrote:
> 
[stuff deleted]

> Within a year, there are going to be some 4 million people with N64's
> who'd *love* to get their hands on a decent VR helmet. This is a *big*
> market (I'm not counting the M2, PSX II, etc., so the actual number
> will be much higher within 3 years) and is the best way to get a _high
> quality_ VR helmet into production. Gamers will not buy a poor quality
> helmet (by that I mean any helmet that cannot support colour
> resolutions as high as 640x480) so this is your chance to solve many
> problems at once:
> 
>   - produce a high quality low cost *proper* stereo HMD
>   - get the possibilities of VR known in a wider public
>   - make a *heck* of a lot of people very happy. :)
>   - reduce side effects and public backlash from introduction of VR (a good
>     helmet will cause fewer side effects).
>   - etc (many other things you can think of in your own time :)
> 

Ian you neglect another important challenge...cost.  You need to do
everything you've said, AND you need to deliver it at retail for less
than $200.  Remember you are asking "Joe and Mary Couch Potato" to
shell out this money IN ADDITION to the $200 they spent for junior's
game console, and usually an equal or greater amount more for the game
cartridges/CDs.  Today's HMDs (of lower quality than your desired
device) cost nearly as much as the total family expenditure for a game
system over its lifetime.  In fact, the cost of goods for a 640x480
HMD probably exceeds this number.  We need to get connected with
reality here.

To put it in context, some computer game industry analysts have
questioned the commercial viability of the N64 because of the high
cost of the console and games (>$50 per game).  Also note that the
sales of 32-bit consoles still haven't matched those of 16-bit
systems.  I am not taking a position with regard to the validity of
these facts, simply repeating what I've read and heard.

If gamers won't spend $70 for the game, why should we (entrepreneurs
and developers of VR technology) believe they'll shell out $500-$800
of their hard earned cash for a hi res HMD?  I wouldn't bet my house
on it (or more correctly I wouldn't do it again! ;-) ), and you won't
see wise business people investing in this technology if it can't be
delivered at a reasonable price.  The fact of the matter is that
gamers haven't, and won't, buy HMDs at current prices in any
significant numbers.

We're still years away from producing high quality devices for <$100,
but when that happens there will be something interesting to talk about.

Peter Rothman
prothman@metatools.com